We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?

Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:

• 9% believe a recession will occur this year
• 50% believe it will occur in 2020
• 35% believe it will occur in 2021
• 6% believe it will occur after 2021

When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:

1. Trade Policy
2. Stock Market Correction
3. Geopolitical Crisis

How might the recession impact real estate?

Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.

As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.

Bottom Line

On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.

 Samuel Spinella                                                                                                                               Realtor                                                                                                                                                             SRES                                                                                                                                                                   Intero                                                                                                                                                   Sunnyvale CA                                                                                                                                             408-393-9294

As a professional in the real estate industry over the past twelve years, I’ve built my reputation on providing outstanding service to my clients. In these times of dynamic market movement, I believe the most important thing I can do is to communicate how the current market influences your ability to achieve your personal and financial goals. As a Realtor, I continually educate myself on market trends and real estate changes that create opportunity for my clients.

Sam

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